05/25/2025 - 05/31/2025

Climate in the News:

NOAA predicts an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1st and lasts until November 30th. NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season this year. NOAA and the National Weather Service are preparing for an estimate of 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes this season.

A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability & amount of named storms predicted.  Source: NOAA.gov

Weather Synopsis:

The most impactful weather this week happened on Sunday and Monday due to severe thunderstorms. These storms developed along a dryline, which is a boundary between warm and dry air, and also ahead of a stationary front, which is where cool and warm air meet. On Monday, the front moved further south and caused even more storms in the southern part of the region. Over the two days, atmospheric conditions allowed storms to produce huge 5-inch hail in Menard, Texas, and destructive 80+ mph winds in west and central Texas. There were also nine tornado reports across Texas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

Source: WPC Surface Analysis, 5/25/25 at 7pm CDT

Temperature: 

Generally, May is when the Region starts to see consistently warmer temperatures. Temperatures in the southern portions of the Region often start seeing daily average temperatures in the low 80s.

Last week, temperatures were cool across the Southern Region. A series of low-pressure systems brought winds from the north, making the Region cooler and drier. Daily temperatures became unseasonably cool, especially in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Daily average temperatures there deviated 6°F away from normal. Daily high temperatures were record-low for every day last week across Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Overall, the average temperatures for the week ranged between the low 60s and low 80s.

Precipitation: 

With most of the Region located in a humid subtropical climate, rainfall occurs at any point of the year. During the spring months, storm systems are frequent throughout the South. In May, severe storm probabilities are at their highest in Oklahoma and Northeast Texas in the Southern Region.

The previously mentioned low-pressure systems were responsible for much of the rainfall in the Southern Region last week. Storms also fired and strengthened by interacting with rain-cooled air. Most areas received at least 0.5 inches of rain. Texas had the most rainfall, with some parts getting 7 to 9 inches, especially in the South Central and Upper Coast areas.  Most of Texas, central Oklahoma, central Mississippi, southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and southwestern Tennessee all accumulated 2 times their normal rainfall this time of the year.