2/08/2024

Punxsutawney Phil did not see its shadow, but the Southern Region saw many air mass changes on Groundhog Day that brought moderate rainfall mainly to the ArkLaTex region, Mississippi, and southeast of Tennessee into the weekend.

Before the weekend, a levee breach along the Cache River in Arkansas brought flooding to communities near the river. Many major rivers in the state caused minor to moderate flooding, and two reached their highest levels in six years, according to the National Weather Service office in Little Rock, AR.

Much of our improved areas saw consistent, weekly rainfall since January, rising river levels and flooding which increased soil-moisture content and water supply. Mississippi and Arkansas experienced flooding due to January’s above normal rainfall and pre-existing long-term drought conditions, causing light to moderate rain this weekend to overwhelm the infrastructure and the environment. Southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and Mississippi started the new year in severe drought conditions, which is now ameliorated.

The opposite occurred in central Texas, as counties west of the I-35 corridor stayed relatively dry, even as the year began. A Fire Danger Warning was issued for Sunday along the Rio Grande due to high winds and severe to extreme drought conditions. This is the only area in our region that increased in drought intensity last week.

Looking into the future, Phil’s shadow may have left too early. Our atmosphere is showing signs of a fifty-five percent chance of below average temperatures later into February and March. In terms of drought conditions, much of the Southern Region is expected to experience above normal precipitation. These conditions may allow areas that recently experienced drought improvements to keep these ameliorations.