11/23/2025-11/29/2025

Climate in the News:

After continuous weeks of anomalous high temperatures across the Southern Region, a wintery type pattern will begin to settle in moving forward from Sunday (11/30/25) to Saturday (12/06/25).A series of low-pressure systems, troughs, and cold fronts will bring the potential for wintry mix precipitation to the northern portions of the region, periods of rainfall throughout the week, and high temperatures in the 40s and 50s for much of the region. On Monday (12/01/25), a low-pressure system will move eastward across the Central Plains, bringing wintry precipitation and the potential for freezing rain in the Ozarks region of Arkansas as well as eastern Tennessee. Farther south, widespread coastal showers are expected, bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall and an isolated risk of flash flooding Monday (12/01/25) evening. A stalled boundary across the Southern Region will maintain persistent rain chances throughout the week. However, the next significant rain event is expected on Thursday (12/04/25), with the Weather Prediction Center highlighting a marginal risk of flash flooding for southeast Texas and the Louisiana and Mississippi coastal areas. This will be driven by a low-pressure system emerging from the Rockies and a stalled cold front across the Southern Region, allowing for training storms and continuous rainfall. Except for the far western portions of the region, most areas will see measurable rainfall, with the highest accumulations of 4-5” expected along the Gulf states.

Weather Prediction Center 5-day total precipitation valid from 6pm CDT 12/01/25 - 6pm CDT 12/06/25

Weather Synopsis:

The region began the week anomalously warm for late November, but conditions quickly changed as a low-pressure system and its trailing cold front moved through the region. As a result, widespread rainfall accumulated across the central and eastern portions of the region, with totals reaching up to 4 inches in east Texas and western Louisiana.

Weather Prediction Center CONUS 24 hour Precipitation map for 11/25/2025.

After the frontal passage, the region remained dry, and temperatures fell to seasonal levels for late November, with highs ranging from the low 40s to mid 60s during the latter portion of the week.

Temperatures:

Average temperatures across the Southern Region returned to near or slightly below normal following the strong frontal passage on Monday (11/24/25) through Tuesday (11/25/25).

In the northwestern portions of the region, temperatures averaged in the low 40s, which is typical for this time of year. Central portions of the region experienced temperatures in the 50s to low 60s, while south Texas recorded the warmest conditions, averaging in the mid 70s with being 8 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Overall, the cold front brought most of the region back to seasonal temperatures, a pattern that is expected to continue in the near future.

Precipitation:

The majority of the Southern Region missed out on large amounts of rainfall, including the most drought-stricken areas in the western and southeastern parts of the region. The largest amount of precipitation was recorded in east Texas, south Arkansas, and in the Mississippi river valley.

With CoCoRaHs measurements as far west as Midlothian Texas recording 3.1” of rainfall and as far east as Shreveport Louisiana reporting 3.15”, a blanket of rain soaked this corridor and provided needed rainfall to drought-stricken areas of the central Southern Region.

Drought:

After a swath of 2-4” of rainfall from central Texas to western Mississippi, drought conditions in these areas lessened slightly. Overall, the aerial coverage of every category up to Exceptional Drought (D4) decreased to some degree following the widespread rain event.  Moderate Drought (D1) to Exceptional Drought (D4) showed the greatest improvement, declining from 49.40% the week before to 43% after the rain event.

U.S. Drought Monitor South Climate Region map valid 11/25/2025

Due to a short-term precipitation deficit, Louisiana saw little improvement in drought conditions, even with the most recent rainfall. Southwest Oklahoma and Texas missed out on measurable precipitation and saw no improvement in conditions. Looking ahead, precipitation chances are expected to bypass our most western areas and instead continue impacting central Texas and other central parts of the Southern Region.