11/09/2025 -11/15/2025

Climate in the News:

After a prolonged dry spell across much of the Southern Region, measurable rainfall is expected from Monday (11/17) through Thursday (11/20). This is due to a low-pressure system over the Rocky Mountains that will move east toward the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday, increasing precipitation chances across the Southern Region throughout the week. Early in the week, only our northern areas of the region including Northern Arkansas and Northwestern Tennessee are expected to see any measurable precipitation. Later in the week, as the low pressure moves eastward, much more of the South Central U.S. will see periods of heavier rain and the potential for a few strong storms to follow. Overall, while this low pressure will certainly bring relief to some of our most drought-stricken areas in the Southern region, temperatures will remain above or right at seasonal averages at least until next week.

Weather Synopsis:

After a strong cold front had passed through the Southern Region of the U.S. it had left the majority of the region in a post frontal state to start off the week with well below average temperatures, clear skies, and very minimal precipitation. By midweek, high pressure settled over the Central Plains, suppressing additional precipitation and allowing temperatures across the region to rise above seasonal averages.

Surface analysis valid 6pm CST on 11/13/2025

Temperatures:

A strong low-pressure system produced a deep trough and a sharp cold front that moved through the Southern Region at the start of the week. This system plummeted temperatures all across the region, especially to our most eastern parts where temperatures were three to six degrees Fahrenheit below average for the week. Due to the strength of the system, eastern parts of the region recovered more slowly, keeping temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s there for much of the week.

Temperatures in the western portion of the Southern Region on average ranged from low 70s to upper 50s, mainly due to the bounce-back southerly winds helping elevate those temperatures hastily. In the most western portions of our region, temperature anomalies were three to nine degrees Fahrenheit above average.

Precipitation:

As the region transitioned from a post-frontal pattern and high pressure quickly set in, the Southern Region entered an unusual dry spell with many areas seeing little to no measurable precipitation.

Only the eastern parts of Tennessee received any measurable precipitation in the later portions of the week, with some totals nearing close to an inch, such as in Knoxville at 1.16”, but a majority of the rainfall was close to 0.1-0.5 of an inch for any portions of the state that did see precipitation. Portions of the coastal Mississippi region also saw some rainfall totals from 0.01 to 0.5 inches, such as Wiggins county recording an 0.29” of precipitation and Lumberton 0.39”. Otherwise it was a very dry week for the Southern Region, which further worsened drought conditions in the region.

Drought:

Across the Southern Region, Abnormal Dryness (D0) to Exceptional Drought (D4) covered 71.08% of the land area. Below-normal rainfall across the Southern Region led to increases in D0 conditions and worsening drought in every state except Tennessee. Extreme drought conditions have continued to persist in the south-central parts of Texas. Drought conditions have also worsened week to week in the southern regions of Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle region. Some relief may arrive for drought-stricken areas such as northern Arkansas, Northern and central Mississippi, and parts of the south-central plains based on the forecast discussed in the Climate in the News section.