09/14/2025 - 09/20/2025

Climate in the News:

Conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña by the end of this month. La Niña conditions have the highest probability of development by October and last through December. While favorable conditions last through the new year, a return to neutral conditions may occur between January and March 2026.

Weather Synopsis:

Last week brought hot temperatures and dry conditions to most of the Southern Region. High pressure dominated the Southern Region in the first half of the week. Interacting with other weather features, it allowed light to moderate rainfall, hail, and damaging wind hazards in Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Louisiana in the first half of the week. For Texas and Oklahoma, rainier and cooler conditions returned on Thursday as a cold front approached. The cold front produced widespread thunderstorms with hail and wind hazards that trained eastward across both states toward Arkansas.

Weather Prediction Center’s Surface Analysis valid 3pm CDT on September 18, 2025.

Temperature: 

Climatologically, September is the fourth hottest month of the year for the Southern Region, ranking behind June. The Region often sees daily average temperatures in the high 70s, while southern portions of Texas and Louisiana remain in the low 80s.

Last week, most of the Southern Region felt warm for this time of year. Daily average temperatures were in the low 80s in areas that experienced drier conditions. Otherwise, areas along the coast experienced slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures, especially in South Texas, where heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover occurred. Overall, average temperatures ranged between the low 60s and the mid-80s.

Precipitation: 

With most of the Region located in a humid subtropical climate zone, rainfall occurs at any point of the year. During the fall months, frequent cold fronts initiate severe thunderstorms and rain showers. Tropical systems continue to impact the Southern Region’s weather patterns both directly and indirectly.

Widespread rainfall occurred across the western margins of the Region. The week’s highest accumulations were in the Texas Lower Valley and High Plains, and the Arkansas Northwest - over 5.5” of rain accumulated in each of these areas. The heaviest rainfall occurred on Saturday, when 4.55” was observed at a CoCoRaHS station in Rogers and Bentonville, Arkansas. Otherwise, parts of every state recorded moderate and scattered rain throughout the week.

Drought:

Across the Southern Region, overall coverage of Abnormal Dryness (D0) to Exceptional Drought (D4) takes up 56% of the land area. Dry conditions for the past two months in the Southern Region contributed to widespread expansion of (D0) conditions in every state.  Fortunately, heavy rainfall from the previous week, observed across the western half of Texas, led to improved drought conditions. Dry conditions and soil moisture deficits in west Tennessee and northeast Arkansas prompted (D3) extreme drought to over 6% and 1% of both states, respectively. Last week’s precipitation, discussed above, will be considered in the next assessment of the drought monitor.